Tuesday Night Thoughts

Happy Tuesday, friends.  I have some thoughts, about football and other things, which shouldn’t surprise you unless you’re new to this rodeo.  If you are, welcome.  Hold on tight, because the bucking is about to start.  If you’ve been here before, you know what’s coming next.  Ready……. BEGIN!!!!

1.  I’m going to tread on potentially touchy ground, so I may as well start right off the bat with it.  Do you remember the 2004 Presidential election in the United States?  I would imagine that most of us do.  I don’t want to make public value judgments about the policy positions of the two candidates, George W. Bush, and John Kerry, but I do have a football point that is germane to that election.

Do you remember the primary narrative that came out of the Bush campaign?  There were two manifestations of it, but it was basically one idea.  On one hand, there was the Kerry is a flip-flopper narrative, primarily because he initially voted to authorize funding for the Iraq invasion, and then opposed the operation itself.  That was the negative version of the other key narrative, which is that you have to stay the course once you decide to take major action like invading a country.  You had a positive version and a negative version of the same general concept; it’s not okay to change your mind, even as new information becomes available, or surrounding circumstances change.

Completely independent of the policy question at hand, I think that messaging like that serves only to promote anti-intellectualism, and a denunciation of the concept of trying to understand nuance, or even recognizing that such a thing exists.  The decision was made, it is what it is, there’s no turning back, don’t even bother understanding the issue at hand, because it doesn’t matter anyway.  I don’t care who employs that type of messaging, or what it’s about, it hurts the public discourse.  If that tactic should ever be used to promote a political policy that I personally love, I guarantee that I’ll publicly denounce the promotion of popular ignorance, even as it seeks a good end.  The ends sometimes don’t justify the means.

Intelligent people should always be re-evaluating their circumstances, in whatever arena in which they’re making decisions.  They should be seeking new knowledge from a variety of sources, and recognizing external events which affect their lives and decisions.  The right approach today may not be the right approach tomorrow, and we owe it to ourselves to keep a skeptical eye on everything, and an open mind.  Blindly staying the course is for idiots and losers.  Adapting to your challenges as they present themselves is for intelligent people and winners.

Which brings me to my football point, which I’ve touched on before.  The fat part of the bell-curve bunch (hereafter the fat-parters) which makes up most of the football punditocracy kind of hates them some Josh McDaniels, but they really hate them some Raheem Morris.  I mean, come on.  He’s even younger than McDaniels, by about 5 months, and he’d never even been an NFL coordinator in an actual game when he was hired as Head Coach.  Think of all the salt-of-the-earth scoop-leaking retreads out there who deserved the Tampa Bay job more than he did!!!!!  (I’m being ironical, if you couldn’t tell;  I’m personally loath to use any exclamation points, let alone six in a row.  I’m not that guy, and neither should you be.)

Morris was named Defensive Coordinator in December 2008, when Monte Kiffin decided to leave to go coach with his son Lane at Tennessee.  That lasted about three weeks, until the Glazer family decided to relieve Jon Gruden of his duties, and promote Morris to Head Coach.  He had interviewed with the Broncos for their Head job, and was reportedly impressive.  I suspect that the Glazers were afraid of losing the next Mike Tomlin, so they decided to lock him in a year earlier than he may have been ready, rather than lose him later.

Morris was inexperienced, and had a big learning curve.  He hired the experienced Jeff Jagodzinski and Jim Bates as Offensive and Defensive Coordinator, respectively.  Jagodzinski had been and NFL Tight Ends and Offensive Line coach, and  college Head Coach, but he’d never been a play-caller, and he delegated that duty to Running Backs coach Steve Logan, who had done it for him at Boston College.  In the preseason, Morris found the performance of the offense unacceptable, and not just on the field.  He observed problems with Logan getting the plays in timely to the field, and he received input from other coaches that Jagodzinski had no idea how to run an NFL offense.  Before a game was even played, Morris decided to fire Jagodzinski, and he got absolutely skewered for it.

You can’t change your mind!  You hired the guy, you have to live with him!!  It’s amateur hour!!!!!!!!!!!

Morris was clear about his reasoning, saying that he’d evaluated Jagodzinski as being lacking as a coordinator, and that he was probably a guy who should either be a position coach or a Head Coach.  He said Jags lacked the needed attention to detail to be an effective coordinator.  This all makes sense, right?

Morris promoted QB coach Greg Olson, who had previous NFL play-calling experience, and the team promptly got out to an 0-7 start.  This kid isn’t ready for prime time!  He should have stayed the course!!!  How can you believe a guy who’d fire Jags before a game had ever been played?!!!!!!!!!!!  Morris should be fired after only one season!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Bucs beat a good Green Bay team in Week 9, and then lost their next 2 games, to fall to 1-9.  At that point, the Bucs had given up 294 points, or an average of 29.4 per game.  That’s a very high number.  Morris didn’t like what he saw from the defense, so he fired Jim Bates on November 24th.  The yelling started again, sometimes reaching the level of a howl.

This is unbelievable!  Now this guy is going to call his own plays, when he doesn’t even know how to hire a coordinator?!!!!!  (From Warren Sapp and Marshall Faulk on NFLN) All he knows how to do is call Tampa-2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So what happened next?  In their final six games, the Bucs allowed 20 points to a solid Atlanta team, 16 to Carolina, 26 to the Jets, 7 to Seattle, 17 to New Orleans, and 20 again to Atlanta.  That’s an average of 18 points per game, which is much better than the defense was under Bates.  The Bucs also won the Seattle and New Orleans games, and were only blown out by the Jets.  And for Warren and Marshall, Morris blitzed quite a bit, in among the Tampa-2 stuff he did call.  The defense was a lot more aggressive under Morris than it had been under Bates.

After the 2009 season, Morris was not fired, which some fat-parters griped passingly about.  The team with the lowest payroll and the youngest roster in the NFL improved as the season progressed, and even won two of its last three games.  This year, they won their first two, and got beaten by a Steelers team that’s a lot better than they are.  The Bucs are moving in the right direction.  They’ve found players who are going to compete to be in Pro Bowls, including Josh Freeman, Mike Williams, Donald Penn, Gerald McCoy, Barrett Ruud, and Aqib Talib, and a lot of others who are going to grow up to be good players.  They’re going to be very tough to handle in a year or so.  This year, they’ll be competitive most of the time.  It’s a process, and the courageous and wise-beyond-his-years Morris is the biggest reason for the improvement they’re seeing.

2.  Speaking of not staying the course, the 49ers did the right thing in firing Offensive Coordinator Jimmy Raye Monday.  Of course, it’s being misunderstood by everybody, but I’m going to give you the real deal.  It’s been widely reported that the 49ers have been struggling to get plays in to Alex Smith on time, and that Raye often forgot parts of the verbiage as he called them from memory.  The players and other coaches had no confidence in Raye, who is one of those well-regarded, salt-of-the-earth loser types I mentioned last week.  (He’s actually known as a guy who joins staffs of head coaches who are about to get canned.)  Mike Singletary had to do something, because allowing the play-calling issues, and near mutiny to continue would be tantamount to voluntarily sabotaging his own team.

Sunk costs are irrelevant to the decisions we face today.  Always remember that, because it’s a non-negotiable, undeniable truth of life.  If what you’re doing isn’t working, you need to have the courage to change up now.  A lot has been made of the fact that the Niners and Alex Smith have now had 6 OCs in 6 years, but we’re not talking about a whole new scheme here.  Mike Johnson was the QB coach, and is now the primary play-caller.  The scheme is mostly going to stay intact, and the hope has to be that the play-calling will be better and smoother.  I’d personally recommend playing more spread-out shotgun looks.

I still think that San Francisco is going to win the NFC West, because they have the best 53 men in the division.  What they need, more than anything, is for Michael Crabtree to get it in gear, and start separating downfield.  Alex Smith has been criticized for checking down a lot, but it’s not because he wants to.  Defenses are bracketing Vernon Davis, and the 49ers’ outside WRs aren’t getting any separation to get them out of it.  Crabtree has more ability than he’s shown yet, so you wonder what’s going on with him.

3.  The Chiefs are 3-0, and I’m slightly impressed, but not fully on the bandwagon.  What I will say is that they clearly hit on a lot of draft picks this year, and they’re a lot better than they were in 2009.  You have to throw the ball on the Chiefs, because they’re really stacking the box.  In throwing, it’s best to stay away from CB Brandon Flowers, unless you clearly have him beat.  You also need to block Tamba Hali on the edge.  Beyond that, it’s really doable.

In defending the Chiefs, it begins and ends with the RBs and TE.  I’d be playing the Chiefs with 8 in the box all the time, and covering them man-to-man.  When Dexter McCluster is on the field, I’d treat him as a WR, and bring in an extra CB to cover him, but still have him in the box.  Rookie TE Tony Moeaki looks like a good player, but he’s mostly been beating zone.  I’d like to see what he can do against tight man-to-man.

Finally, Matt Cassel’s numbers came out okay Sunday, but he doesn’t pass my eyeball test.  He’s late with a lot of throws, and his accuracy is often not good.  I think Charlie Weis is a good NFL coordinator, and he’ll help, but Cassel can definitely be forced into making big mistakes, and sometimes, he’ll just make them on his own.

4.  Jay Cutler was the same old Jay Cutler Monday night.  His talent shone brightly, and so did his penchant for making mistakes.  He threw about 5 passes that should have been interceptions, but was rescued by a drop, and a bunch of penalties.  Make no mistake, the Bears should be 1-2 right now, not 3-0.  Calvin Johnson and the whole Packers team gave them two games they shouldn’t win.  I don’t still think they’re going to finish 4-12, and their run defense is better than I thought, but I had the offense exactly right.  They’re going to complete some passes, to both teams, and they’re going to get Cutler smashed.  I don’t think the Bears are going to make the playoffs, when it’s all said and done.  The way they’re winning is simply not sustainable.

5.  Marshawn Lynch continues to be the best RB on the Bills, and that’s not going to change.  He’s a little more talented than CJ Spiller, and a lot more talented than Fred Jackson.  When Lynch is given carries, and he’s physically right, he’s very hard to stop.  I expect that his days are numbered in Buffalo, and that he’ll eventually move to a more favorable environment and thrive.  The Packers should trade a third rounder for Lynch right now, but they won’t, because it’s not Ted Thompson’s way.

6.  And then there’s Peyton Hillis.  I’ve always liked the player, going back to his Arkansas days.  He’s very unique in that he’s a FB-sized guy with a HB skill-set.  He’s a very good runner and receiver, but a below-average blocker.  He’s also a bit of a fumbler.  Broncos fans know all this, and many still have man-crushes on him.  I get all that.  Hillis is definitely a guy who can play in the NFL, and be productive.  Anybody who makes that point is making a good, solid point.

The counterpoint is that he didn’t really fit the Josh McDaniels scheme in Denver.  McDaniels wants speed and versatility in his backs.  Hillis really has neither, because you can’t count on him to block well.  He needs the ball in his hands to be effective, and that’s not the case with Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter.    Sometimes a guy with valuable skills doesn’t fit what your outfit is trying to do.  I work for a learning outsourcing business, and we’re not actively seeking to employ any plumbers, attorneys, or chemical engineers.  That’s not to say that people in those professions are valueless, not at all; it’s just that their value propositions lie elsewhere than our need area.  Such was the story with Hillis in Denver.

When the McDaniels-Xanders regime started pruning their semi-rotten tree in early 2009, they were effectively saying that a lot of the jettisoned players couldn’t play in the NFL.  It was true, as more than 30 of them never did again.  Now that the Broncos don’t employ any bad players, when they let a solid one go for whatever reason, it’s not analogous to saying the guy can’t play.  They often catch on elsewhere, have success, and Broncos fans can wish them well in their future endeavors.  Such IS the story with Hillis in Cleveland.  I’m here, so I know.

So, in Denver there’s this local TV sports reporter named Josina Anderson.  Ordinarily, I’d have no idea who the local hacks are, be it here in Cleveland, or there in Denver.  Anderson seems to do a good job with maintaining relationships with the local athletes, and often has good Broncos scoops, so I follow her on Twitter.  Tonight, she was seemingly the first to report the Earth-shattering news that Karl Paymah had signed with the Texans.

Anderson tweeted the following on Sunday:

First,

Then, Wow… what could she be shaking her head about?  Isn’t the whole fit thing pretty easy to understand.  Didn’t Josina, who’s a good looking woman whose Twitter page says that she’s signed to the Wilhelmina modeling agency, ever not want to date a guy that one of her lesser friends liked?  When the guy turned out to be a decent husband for her friend, was she filled with regret for passing on him?

I responded to her head shaking:

That makes sense, right?  One man’s trash is another man’s treasure, or beauty is in the eye of the beholder, or whatever other cliche you want to use.  I mean, I figure Josina knows who I am from my Mile High Report days, and that I’m an independent sort of football thinker, saying what I think.  (She probably hates me, like all reporters seem to, but that’s cool.  I pretty much ask for it.)

And then,Josina thinks I was making her point for her, when in fact, I was making the opposite point.  And since when do legitimate reporters call the team they cover “us?”  And why would I follow her thinking about football?  Is she suddenly a football thinker?  I mean this in a totally non-sexist way, but Josina has never had a football thought that I’ve even noticed before.  She’s a player-texter, and news reporter.  That’s HER value proposition, and she seems to do well with it.  I’m not saying that she’s incapable of having a good football thought, but I’m not holding my breath.

Like my friend Doug Lee at IAOFM, I get annoyed with the whole hindsight phenomenon around Hillis.  To me, players and coaches come and go, but the team is forever.  That’s true from John Elway down to a (highly over-loved) guy (who never plays a regular season snap) like Carlton Powell.  Hillis had some good moments with the Broncos, and some forgettable ones, but in the end, he and the team parted ways.  Second-guessing that does no good, and I refuse to do it.  Jay Cutler made some good throws Monday night, and Brandon Marshall caught a few passes the night before.  Tony Scheffler scored a TD on Sunday.  I don’t want them back either.  To me, the Broncos of 2010 are the Broncos, and I’m just fine with that.

I’m done for the night, friends.  I’ll see you next time I have some time to write.

Thoughts On A Broncos Loss

I’m sort of an instant football analyst, which has its pros and cons.  Often, I’m way ahead of other observers in noticing things, and pointing them out, which is a pro.  Sometimes, I see JaMarcus Russell look really good in a preseason game, and it leads me to opine that he’s turning the corner as an NFL QB, which can end up being a con.  For me, it works out more often than not, because I’m a very sophisticated observer of the game, and because I’m always accountable for thoughts that turn out to be wrong.  Not to be immodest, but I know vastly more football than the average person, so I don’t mind admitting a mistake when I was almost always the first to the party saying anything.

A lot of average persons, and no doubt, some below average ones, have been providing some “instant analysis” on Twitter about yesterday’s Colts-Broncos game.  I was going to take a screenshot of some of the foolishness, but I decided that I didn’t want to put anybody specific’s name on the lines of thinking that I am about to completely eviscerate.

First, I’ll give you a paragraph or two of my own high-level analysis.  The Broncos lost yesterday against a good football team with an excellent QB and overall program.  I’m not surprised  in the least, and in fact, I thought it was 75-80% likely that that would be the outcome before the game ever started.  I think most other reasonable people probably did, too.  The Broncos are building a nascent program, and the Colts are running a mature one.  Both teams were missing some key players, which essentially added up to a moderate quality deficit for the Broncos.  (If you read the “storylines” from a lot of the Target booksellers today, you’d think it’s only the Colts who had any injury problems.  Goodman, Moreno, and Harris > Garcon and Charlie Johnson.)

I would have loved for the Broncos to get a win yesterday, but I’m satisfied with the good showing that they put forward.  They proved that they are a good enough team to beat Indianapolis if they execute well.  Their quality is now good enough, and their scheming is absolutely good enough.  Their execution was about 85% good enough, but that 15% was enough to make them fall short against a team that was essentially undefeated until the Super Bowl last season.  That’s what I take away from yesterday’s game.  It’s a loss, but it’s the kind of loss that had evident progress to it, and it’s the kind of loss that winners build on.

The Broncos game plan, both offense and defense, was just outstanding yesterday.  On offense, they ran a lot of play action with max protection, and it stretched the Colts’ Cover-2 vertically, which really stressed them.  Forget the fact that the Broncos were ineffective running the ball; they tried enough, and pretended to try enough to get a lot of value out of it.  They realized, and now the whole NFL is going to realize, that the Colts are extremely worried about their ability to stop the run with 7 players.  Because of that, they put an eighth guy in the box every time they saw a run look, which is what  opened up so many routes downfield.  The Broncos got a ton of one-on-one matchups with their scheme.

Speaking of the passing scheme, I’ve been wondering who was going to be second to the party in talking about its value, and I was glad to see that Phil Simms, a very smart football guy, was on it.  He didn’t get into a lot of depth, but it was clear that he is impressed with how it all comes together.  Their pass protection was better schemed and executed yesterday than it has been all season, as well.  I’m telling you, the McDaniels bandwagon is the one to be on.  I’m not the only one who thinks so, either:

The scheme was 100% on point Sunday, on both sides of the ball.  The game came down to execution, which is pretty much a zero-sum game.  By that, I mean that outcomes on a given play are either positive or negative, and one team has a positive, the other a negative.  In some key situations, the Colts won the battle to execute.  Think of the Laurence Maroney run on 4th and goal, for example.  He failed to get the ball into his upfield arm, so he couldn’t reach the goal line when he was wrapped up perfectly.  A player (and team) won that play, another lost that play.  There were a ton of plays Sunday where the Broncos won, more than the Colts.  The Colts were just better at maximizing the effect of their wins, and that’s something the Broncos will get better at.  They already are better at it than they were last year, if you ask me, but it’s a process that takes time.

I had a guy tell me yesterday on Twitter that Kyle Orton lacks killer instinct, and that the Broncos will lose games because of it.  I literally started laughing out loud.  (When you text LOL, were you generally REALLY Laughing Out Loud?  Me neither; generally, I’m in a meeting or something, trying not to get noticed that I was texting, and keeping a poker face on.)  Seriously?  Killer instinct?  Isn’t that a WWE-coined term?  Can a football fan presume to know a player’s instincts?  When Orton converted 14 of his first 17 third downs against Seattle, there was nothing wrong with his “killer instinct.”  (Let’s just all agree not to use that term, mmmkay?  Nobody is killing anybody.)

Kyle Orton is not a game manager, so let’s end that MSM-aided stupidity.  He’s a player with every talent needed to be an elite QB, with the exception of good foot speed.  He’s like a slightly less accurate version of Tom Brady, and his accuracy has improved a lot in the last two seasons from where it was in Chicago.  At this point, Orton is refining his ball placement, which is like the hidden accuracy within accuracy.  Orton’s deep ball is improving too, just as Brady’s did.  Most don’t remember this, but Brady was once called a check-it-down game manager, too.  It’s amazing what some weapons and an outstanding scheme will do for you.  I’m here to tell you, Orton looks like the long-term answer at QB to me.  I don’t have a horse in that race, really, but I think anybody is going to have a hard time beating him out, the way he’s playing.  He’s going to shred Tennessee next week; their pass coverage is really bad if you can protect your QB, which the Broncos will be able to do.

Across the #Broncos hashtag on Twitter last night, there were endless calls for Orton to be benched, and for Tim Tebow to start playing.  That is 100% absurd, and I’m a guy who really likes Tebow, and thinks he’s going to be very good someday.  (Maybe somewhere else, but somewhere, anyway.)  Quite simply, if you think Orton is the problem, you’re confused.  He’s playing at a level that is just outside the elite of the NFL, and that next step is one he can take with some more help from his teammates.  The defense the Broncos faced yesterday is expressly designed to prevent what the Broncos did to it, and it couldn’t.  I always thought of the Broncos fan base as being educated and loyal, but I think that was at least partly due to familiarity bias, since most Broncos fans who I know are both things.  There sure are a lot of idiots and alarmists (and alarmists who are also idiots) out there.

The simple truth to yesterday’s game is that the Broncos were out-executed in the scoring area, and they turned the ball over twice.  That’s the whole story.  The team that knew how to win won, and the team that’s learning how to win lost.  It was predictable, folks.

The same person who criticized Orton’s innate qualities as a professional wrestler also said that the Broncos “can’t” score inside the 20.  I would say that they didn’t do it yesterday, but that doesn’t mean that they can’t.  They’re going to need to run the ball better to force defenses out of Cover-2, and into man-to-man.  Cover-2 in the scoring area is tough to beat, because it ends up playing much more like Cover-7.  The shorter area to cover packs in the seven coverage guys, and gives them all smaller areas to be responsible for.  That’s how defenders get hands on well-thrown balls, and make them fall incomplete.  It’s not too different from how defenses cover Hail Marys in the end zone; crowds make it tough to complete passes.  When Ryan Harris returns, and the improving Zane Beadles is able to move to Left Guard, the Broncos will be able to run the ball much better, especially if Knowshon Moreno gets healthy and on a decent roll.

That improvement in the running game will cause defenders to put an eighth man in the box, and play man-to-man outside, and the Broncos will have no problems scoring Touchdowns against that kind of defense.  Saying the Broncos can’s score inside the twenty is a bit like saying current unemployment in America is structural.  It makes you sound thoughtful and nuanced to people who don’t know any better, but in the end, it’s demonstrably wrong.  (Saying that Orton throwing for 476 yards against a fast defense that’s designed to limit the passing game doesn’t matter is just too stupid for words.)  The 2010 Broncos are a work-in-progress, but I agree with TJ Johnson at Itsalloverfatman.com that this team is better than the 2009 Broncos, and that the early-season records aren’t a true indicator of quality, year-over-year.

The Broncos need to execute a bit better, but they’re good enough to beat any team in the NFL on any given Sunday.  They’re one more talent acquisition cycle from being an elite team, but when the 2011 season begins, they’re going to be one.  This year, they’re going to compete for a playoff spot, and I think they have a good chance to get in there.  The early pains of the McDaniels program installation will have been worth it, and maybe people will even be civil to each other on the Denver Post message board.  (Probably not, but you never know.)  All the instant analysts who called for McDaniels to be fired, or for Orton to be benched will have been wrong, but unlike me with JaMarcus The Hutt, and other things I had wrong, they won’t ever admit it.

Why You Shouldn’t Align With The McDaniels Haters

Criticizing Josh McDaniels is lots of fun, and it’s not too hard to do.  I mean, let’s face it.  He’s young, (the same age as me, incidentally) and he thinks he knows how to build and run a winning football program.  It’s the same kind of deal as with Raheem Morris, who I’ll be writing about on Tuesday evening.  (I have a planned event tonight… sorry that my around the league stuff will have to wait a day.) How can it be possible that these young guys would dare to act in complete defiance to the football cognoscenti?  (Think about it… it’s really funny to consider fools like Peter King, Mark Kiszla, Woody Paige, and Pete Prisco as being part of a cognoscenti, isn’t it?  No?  How about an intelligentsia?  I didn’t see Dinner for Schmucks, but I’m picturing some distinct similarities.)

One thing is clear.  (Well, really, a lot of things are clear, when you are the type of person who can see clearly.)  Josh McDaniels doesn’t care what you or I think.  A lot of people, like Woody, get offended by that fact, but I’m personally very impressed by it.  I am a big believer that most of the world is usually wrong, on most everything, and that the road of conventional wisdom leads to the palace of ignorance, just as the road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom.  (OK, so, I stopped really believing so much in excess when I turned about 25.  It was a fun philosophy for awhile, though. )

In any case, McDaniels has a clear vision for how you win football games in the NFL, and give yourself a chance to win championships.  His program comes first, which, in itself is offensive to the thinking of some.  Some people will tell you that football coaches (or business executives, or whatever) should adapt their approach to the resources they currently have in place.  It’s a pretty conservative (and stupid) way of thinking, and when it fails, and the coach gets fired after 3-4 years, he doesn’t get beaten up too badly.  Chances are, he recycles into another job in a couple years, and history repeats itself, but he respected the game, and acted in accordance with the scores of other mediocre coaches in the fat part of the bell curve.  The media will still show him some love, and present him as a poor, hapless salt-of-the-earth type, who was in JUST over his head.  (Remember, this was the accepted Norv Turner narrative, until he got into a situation where a capable program-setter had set a good program, and left him to simply coach.)

Newspaper reporters and columnists also tend to be the kind of people who you’ll find near the fat part of the professional-class bell curve, so they naturally love the kind of conservative, conventional thinking you get from most coaches.  It’s good to generally agree with everybody else, and to never go too far out on any limbs.  When some young whipper-snapper comes along and frankly exploits conventional wisdom, they get confused, and they fear what they don’t understand.  As sports writers, (which as Michael Lewis put it, is sort of the women’s auxiliary to the sport itself) they feel the need to maintain a little bit of macho-ness, and they don’t want to show fear, so it comes across as anger and disdain.

I’m here to tell you what the plan is with Josh McDaniels, and that it’s working.  In the era of the salary cap, which we can only assume will continue once the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is reached, teams have constraints.  Since everybody is earning and spending roughly the same amount of money, parity is systemically encouraged, and generally achieved.  (Digressing for a second, it should be noted that revenues vary much more widely, team-to-team, than expenses do.  Obviously, that drives a wide variance in profitability too.)  Teams with the best programs in place are the ones which defy parity, and regression toward the mean.  This is a pretty simple concept, but most people don’t see the forest through the trees.

Which teams have consistently defied the NFL’s intended systemic parity throughout the 2000s?  We may quibble a little bit, but I’d name four: New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia.  The people who see the trees, but miss the forest, will reflexively attribute their success mostly to the Quarterbacks, in 3 of the 4 cases (Pittsburgh being the exception).  The QB play of all 4 teams has been responsible in large ways for the success of each, but it’s far from the whole story.  Each of these four organizations (and you can add others who are more successful than not like Dallas, the Giants, and San Diego) has a clear philosophy when it comes to player procurement and schemes.

I don’t want to rehash the decisions to jettison Jay Cutler,  Brandon Marshall, and Tony Scheffler, but understand my general point that McDaniels had the courage to do what he was sure was the right thing, in the face of constant, unreasonable criticism.  McDaniels has a vision of what a championship team looks like.  It’s big, strong, and versatile on both lines.  It has DBs with excellent ball skills, who get the ball back for the offense, and it favors experience and intelligence on defense.  On offense, it throws the ball first, to get leads, but avoids committing turnovers, and it runs second to protect those leads.  Above all, it understands value, and measures it against financial constraints, and subsequently allocates value and cost efficiently throughout the roster.  Generally, you pay quality QBs, offensive linemen and pass rushers, and skimp somewhat on RBs, ILBs, WRs, and DBs, where scheme can make up for lesser talent sometimes.

The main thing I took away from yesterday’s game, and also from Week 1, is that the Broncos have an awesome passing game, and that every team in the NFL is going to be challenged to contain it.  It has less to do with the players (who are good) than it does with the scheme, much like New Orleans.  Right now, I’ll put the Broncos passing scheme with those of New Orleans, New England, and Dallas as the best in the NFL.

I could just put that out there, and expect you to take my word for it, but that would be pretty un-Tedlike.  Instead, I’m going to explain and diagram what I mean, until I run out of time in about an hour.  Ready….  Begin!!!!!  (Who’s missed that?)

A passing scheme is fundamentally about math, just like a pass coverage scheme.  You have a certain number of players, eleven, except when you only have 10, as in the TD play in Jacksonville last week.  Assuming 11, you can assign each to do something specific to promote the success of each play.  A minimum (and generally a maximum) of 5 players will be covered, meaning they aren’t in the backfield, or on the end of the line.  Those players are required to block, and can’t go downfield until a forward pass has left the QB’s hand.

If you only have those 5 men blocking, that’s called minimum protection.  All teams do this some, and some (like the Bears) do it almost constantly.  If there are 5 linemen and 1 QB, there are 5 eligible receivers.  (Also known as the two ends on the line of scrimmage, and 3 men in the backfield.)  Schemes will sometimes assign one or more of those players to stay in, and help with pass protection, mostly TEs and RBs.  Maximum protection will generally be 8 blockers and 2 receivers, and on certain plays, most teams will do this.  Picture a play action pass with a seven-step drop.  Usually, there’s one deep route, and one underneath route, and everybody else is selling the run, and/or blocking.

I know what you’re thinking; why are you going through this basic stuff, Bartlett?  We know all this.  Right?  Well, the story gets better.  Pass scheming is about math.  I already said that, but focus on defense for a minute.  Defenses can choose to either have their players rush the QB, or drop into coverage (which can be zone, man-to-man, or a combination.)  The defense is going to rush X players, and drop Y players.  The offense is going to keep A players in to protect, and send B players out into the pattern.  WTF?  Algebra?  Really?

Let’s start with personnel, and illustrate this.  Pretty universally, offenses will identify their personnel groupings by number.  Here are the ones you’ll generally see:

10 Personnel 1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR

11 Personnel 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR

12 Personnel 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR

13 Personnel 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR

20 Personnel 2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR

21 Personnel 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR

22 Personnel 2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR

01 Personnel 0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR

00 Personnel 0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR

Are you following me?  Algebraically, (considering that X and Y are digits, and not multipliers), the team is in XY personnel, where X = the number of RBs, Y equals the number of TEs, and the number of WR equals 5 minus X minus Y.  The personnel grouping is the first element of pass scheming, on both sides of the ball.  Generally, a defense will want to match the offense’s personnel grouping, so the offense has a dictatorial advantage in this sense.  That means if I’m in 11 personnel, the defense is going to see that, and and send in an extra CB, and remove a LB, to be in their nickel package.  If I’m in 10 personnel, or 01 personnel, it’ll probably be a dime, featuring 4 CBs.  (Defenses which feature safeties or LBs who can cover exceptionally well in man-to-man don’t always have to follow suit, which is a big advantage for them.  Witness the Buckhalter TD yesterday, where 11 personnel cleared Seattle’s big guys out of the inside running lane.)

OK, so, from a personnel balancing perspective, defenses will try to match offenses.  Generally, offenses have more good WRs than defenses have CBs, so in sub packages, the offense has a built-in quality advantage.  Ponder that, and remember it, because we’re going to come back to it shortly.  Let’s consider alignment of the formation.  I have 11 guys on offense, and I have one rule in constructing formations, which I alluded to before.  Seven men must be on the line of scrimmage, and only the two on each end are eligible receivers.  Usually you’ll have a Tight End and a Split End (which is the technical term for one flavor of “Wide Receiver”, which is a dumbed-down term).  With seven men on the line, that leaves a QB, and three other men lined up behind the line.  The other “Wide Receiver” who is behind the line is technically called a Flanker if he’s the furthest player outside, or a Slotback, if he’s inside of a Split End or Flanker.

So, let’s say I have 11 Personnel, which is very common in the NFL.  How do I line them up, given those rules?  Here are the first 6 ideas that occurred to me.

You see that?  Clockwise from the top left, I have an Ace look, a shotgun look with twin backs, a 4-wide look, an empty spread shotgun look, a tight 2 by 2 shotgun look, and a trips look with one back.  This is all from 11 personnel, and the defense has to be ready to match up with all of these, and other looks, with nickel personnel.  I could have easily come up with about 2 dozen more variations from this personnel grouping, but I think you get the point.

So, I have 11 personnel against nickel personnel.  As mentioned before, I have an advantage from the jump, because the defense has a CB on the field who is very likely a lesser player than the LB he replaced.  He’s also probably not as good as my third WR, because CBs are harder to find than WRs.  I call for a trips right formation, from under center, with one RB.  My TE is going to be the inside man in the trips grouping, on the line of scrimmage.  How does the defense line up?  If they show an even 2-deep look against it, I’m going to have 3 on 2 outside against it, and I know what I want to do from a sight adjustment.  Let me show you what I mean.

This is an even cover-2 defensive look, which screams "numbers mismatch" to the QB.

I see what looks like Cover-2, which means that on the right side, I’m going to have 2 blockers to hit 2 defenders if I want to run a quick bubble screen.  This is basically what happened on Demariyus Thomas’s first NFL catch Sunday.  On 3rd and 14, the Broncos correctly guessed that the Seahawks would be in Cover-2, which Pete Carroll favors generally, and especially at that down and distance, and they exploited it, by going 3 on 2 against it, like it was a fast break with Magic, Worthy, and Michael Cooper.

Say that Sam LB is cheating out, expecting the screen, and tipping the QB he wants to man up on that TE, with the NB and CB taking the two WRs.  Then the defense essentially becomes a 2 man-under look, at least on the heavy side.  We have a good answer for that too.

Since we're reading man-to-man, we're going with a bunch of rub action, and one of the 4 players on the right side is virtually guaranteed to be open.

Eddie Royal’s TD catch yesterday came in 11 personnel, with action that looked very similar to this diagram, albeit from a slightly different formation.  A pattern like this is almost impossible to completely defend, and somebody is always going to be open.  (Note that by pattern, I mean the collection of routes on the play.  A route is individual event by one eligible receiver, and a pattern is a collective event by all receivers.  The terms are sometimes used interchangeably, but they shouldn’t ever be.)

The McDaniels offense runs patterns like this all the time, and that’s why it always seems like there’s somebody open.  A lot of schematic attention is paid to how people are going to get open, and a successful QB in this offense needs to always know where the open spot should be.  That’s the main reason that QBs get better the more time they have in the offense, because they get used to the different route combinations, personnel groupings, protection schemes, and alignments, against different defensive looks.  A lot is made of QBs being able to read defenses, but especially in an offense like this, the key reads come pre-snap, and not while the bullets are flying.  The QB looks at the defensive alignment, and has a really good idea of where he’s going to go with the ball.  Once the ball is snapped, he’s looking to the area that’s most likely to be open.

So, back to numbers, to make the key point.  When does 11 not equal 11?  When you can scheme ways for players on the opposing team to have nothing useful to do, that’s when.  Aggressive teams think in these terms, more often than not on defense, vis-a-vis blitz schemes.  I’m going to take the unorthodox approach of borrowing a diagram from myself, that I used on my old site.

I created that diagram as an example of the Jets overload blitzing the Colts, during last year’s playoffs.  The defensive line is all lined up opposite the left side of the offensive line, but the idea of this blitz concept is to leave the Left Offensive Tackle with nothing to do, and the Left Guard beaten because he got confused, and took a false first step to his outside.  The defense is bringing six men against 3 or 4, and then jamming the outside receivers to prevent them from getting quick separation.  Pretty clever, huh?  You can do this same kind of thing on offense, too, and the McDaniels offense constantly tries to.  Look at the same play we just explored again, where, this time, I bothered to draw the zone concepts on the backside.

On the backside, the cover-2 concept remained in effect, because there was no pre-snap reason to check out of it, unlike on the front side. The effect is that 3 players are zoning one offensive player.

Do you see that?  The ILB on the backside, and really the CB and FS are rendered basically useless, because they’re all zoning a player who’s absolutely not going to get the ball in this situation.  The deep in-cut by that WR (we’ll call him Brandon Lloyd) is not accidental, as it magically puts him right at the junction point of the three outside zones, forcing all three to respect it from start to finish, and not to flow to the front side, where the ball is going.  On the front side, there are 4 receivers, running all kinds of rub action, against three man-to-man coverage players, and a zoning strong safety.  The offense has the clear numerical advantage.  Even though the defense sight-adjusted to man-to-man on the front side, to limit their vulnerability, they’re still very vulnerable.  If they drop the strong safety down to help with the rub action, and eventually pick up the RB, the deep coverage suffers when the FS moves into Cover-1.  Suddenly, Lloyd sees a a single-high safety, and can sight-adjust to a go route against single coverage from the backside CB, and the ILB is still a wasted body.  There’s literally no right defensive answer, because the scheme is determined to play 11 on 10 (or 9), and is flexible enough to accomplish that, no matter the counter-measure.

There are a lot of passing offenses which are really basic, and which don’t do much schematically to get players open.  Those offenses reflect a more traditional belief that players should get themselves open.  If you look at Baltimore, San Francisco, Detroit, Indianapolis, Tennessee, and many others, that’s what you’ll get.  Washington and Houston run expressly to set up the pass, and get guys open with a lot of misdirection and bootleg action.

During the game, I tweeted the following:

A short time later, I got a response from @bex34, which I found interesting.

I think she’s right, and it gets back to program-building, and having a plan.  The Broncos have the playmakers, and at the same time, they schematically assist those players in making plays.  Demariyus Thomas is going to be a super-duperstar.  I wasn’t expecting him to be that fast, or to be able to get out of his breaks so quickly as he did Sunday.  Big guys just don’t run routes like this guy can, you have to believe me when I say that.  He’s going to be impossible to handle as he learns how to play at the NFL level.  Beyond Thomas, who’s going to consistently demand that coverages be rolled to him by midseason (which never happened with Brandon Marshall, by the way), there’s a lot more weapons.

Brandon Lloyd is a very talented player who finally overcame being blackballed by Joe Gibbs.  He’s great at going up and catching high balls in traffic, and you can assume that when Kyle Orton goes high to him, it’s usually on purpose.  Jabar Gaffney is a pro’s pro who can consistently defeat single coverage with sharp routes.  Eddie Royal looks great in his new role, playing both inside and outside.  You almost never see a small guy who’s as strong as Royal is, and he’s using his strength better this season.  Eric Decker and Matt Willis are quality backups, who can step in and not miss a beat.  Daniel Graham is good for a couple of key catches a game, mixed in with his blocking excellence.  Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter are both good receivers, and even Spencer Larsen has shown some unexpected smoothness as a pass-catcher.  Orton has a ton of quality guys to throw to, and 2 weeks ago, ignorant pundits (as always, meant negatively) still claimed that WR was a need area.

The McDaniels regime has acquired the players they needed to execute an excellent scheme.  Orton has no bad place to go with the football, and he just needs to throw it to the open guy.  There will almost always be one, and he’ll usually be able to tell who it’ll be before the snap.  It’s just a matter of throwing and catching the ball, and the line providing the necessary protection.  I’m not going to say that Orton is as good as Tom Brady, but his performance can be very comparable to Brady’s, if he just uses the tools at his disposal, including the scheme.

Another Twitter personality, who’s pretty ubiquitous, but who I’m not going to name, recently suggested that the Broncos 2-9 record over their last 11 games is a function of some shortcoming of Josh McDaniels.  He’s wrong, and I don’t want to embarass him by naming him.  McDaniels is an outstanding young coach and program builder, and it’s going to become clear quickly how lucky Broncos fans are to have him.  I’m not saying that they’re going to win the Super Bowl this year, but they’re definitely good enough to win the division, given some of the luck you need going their way.  Brian Xanders recently noted that 32 players from the 2008 roster and practice squad never played in the NFL after that season.  The Broncos team that McDaniels inherited was similar to the recent American economy; it all seemed fine at the top, but at the bottom, things were secretly and unspeakably terrible.  Rebuilding from that kind of systemic disparity takes time, patience, and decisive action, in both football and macroeconomics.  Sometimes, we all need to be dragged to the sunlight kicking and screaming.  Josh McDaniels is going to get Broncos fans there, and Woody Paige and Mark Kiszla (picture a poorly illustrated MTV cartoon called Dumbass and Douchebag) are going to have known all along that there was something special with this kid.

Monday Night Thoughts

OK, I’m trying to figure out how to make time for this.  Today, I worked 8:30 to 5, came home to find my car broken into, and some stuff stolen, dealt with that, went to an MBA class (HR management… blech) from 8 to 9:15, and caught the end of the Jets-Ravens game, and most of the Chiefs-Chargers game.  Whew!

So, now, after all that, I’m going to share some thoughts from the first weekend.

1.  I had lunch with some fantasy football playing guys today, and one was lamenting Houston’s sudden run-heavy bent, because he drafted Andre Johnson in the first round.  I don’t like fantasy football, as most readers know, so I tried to explain the real story in terms of real football.  The Colts play a ton of Cover-2, and like to try to use seven in the box.  It mostly works, because they get out to a lot of early leads, and teams have to throw to play catch-up.  That plays into the Colts’ hands, because they rush the passer and play sound zone defense.

The Donny Deutsch Big Idea that I was getting at was that the Texans ran on the Colts, because that’s clearly the way to beat the Colts.  It’s not necessarily indicative of Houston’s weekly game plan, so all is not necessarily lost.  The Texans will certainly throw the ball to Johnson plenty.  You play to win the game, though, and Sunday, pounding the ball was the way to get the win.

I think the Texans are going to be excellent on offense this season, in all ways.  I was very, very impressed with the play of LT Duane Brown in looking back at the game.  He’s a lot better than Chris Williams and Sam Baker, two OTs who were drafted ahead of him in 2008.  Brown was once a “reach”, which is a reminder of the meaninglessness of that label.

2.  The Colts offensive line is absolutely atrocious.  Mario Williams is awesome, generally, but he was throwing Colts LT Charlie Johnson around like a high school player.  There isn’t a single good player on the Colts’ line, including the vastly overrated Jeff Saturday.  Bill Polian undoubtedly knows this, and trusts Peyton Manning’s greatness to be enough to mitigate the issue.  Most of the time, it will.

3.  LT Jermon Bushrod did a really good job for the Saints against Jared Allen.  I’ve never been a big fan of Jammal Brown, but Bushrod looks like he’s developed into a better player than his predecessor.  The Saints get huge, huge value from the coaching of Aaron Kromer, who is in charge of their offensive line and running game.  Bushrod, Carl Nicks, Jahri Evans, and Jonathan Goodwin were all drafted low, and Kromer has coached them all up to being outstanding players.  Even Jonathan Stinchcomb, the RT, who was a second rounder in 2003, was considered and underachiever until Kromer started working with him.  He shouldn’t have been in the Pro Bowl last season, but he’s become a solid player.  The Saints have the best line in the NFL, if you ask me, and it’s a huge reason for their overall success.

4.  It’s halftime of the second Monday Night game as I write this, and I’m reminded, as always, that I loathe Chris Berman and his tired, lame, TIRED schtick.  At least he toned down his act some at the Hall of Fame ceremony this year.

5.  The Vikings WRs looked like they couldn’t separate on the outside.  The Saints have good CBs in Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter, but they played a lot of Cover-2, and Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian did very little to threaten it.   Sidney Rice can get across a CB’s face, and make a catch in front of a LB, but I question Harvin and Berrian’s ability to do so.  Harvin is a very dangerous player, but he’s not a guy who can whip another guy with a sharply run route.  I’ll be watching this in the coming weeks, but it could be a big issue going forward, if neither can run a slant route across a CB’s face.  Brett Favre throws that route better than anybody who ever played the game, and if he doesn’t have it as an option, like with the Jets toward the end of 2008, he starts looking limited.  If I’m a defensive coordinator, I’m showing nothing but a physical Cover-2 till those guys beat it.

6.  I didn’t love Malcolm Jenkins as a CB coming out of college, because I question his ability to turn and run with speedsters.  That said, I was very impressed with his play at FS Thursday.  He showed really good instincts, and covered a lot of ground.  I’m ready to concede that he’s quicker than I thought he was.

7.  I continue to have no faith in the Bears this season.  I think they’re a 4-12 team, primarily because their choice of offensive scheme doesn’t fit their personnel.  The Lions are good on the defensive front, but they sacked Jay Cutler 4 times, and hit him 7 more.  The Bears’ scheme calls for deep drops and minimum protection, and the Bears lack the linemen to pull it off.  I’m certain of this, and I have been since Mike Martz (a very good coach when he has the right talent) was hired.  He and Lovie Smith will both be gone after this season, and some new coach will come in, preaching smash mouth football, but lacking the linemen for that approach, too.  The Bears have a bunch of guys who just kind of suck up front.

8.  Rookie defensive linemen usually struggle, but Ndamukong Suh is not going to be one who does.  He’s already manhandling guys physically, and it’s just a matter of time before his technique improves, and he’s unblockable inside.

9.  The Bengals are making a big mistake in letting Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens hold such sway, and thinking that they’re a passing team all of a sudden.  Their personnel is geared toward being a running team.  I know that he was kept in check Sunday, but Cedric Benson is the Bengals’ best offensive player, and their offensive line is a lot better going forward than backward.  The Patriots stacked their front against the run, and it was a successful strategy.

The Patriots got out to a huge lead, and then were willing to give up a lot of garbage passing yards in the second half, playing soft.  They won the game early, though, like most good teams do.

10.  I took a random-sample look at the Falcons-Steelers game Monday night, and I continue not to love Matt Ryan.  To me, the guy is an average QB with a good supporting cast, and a lot of love from know-nothing fools like John Clayton.  I don’t see any improvement in him since his rookie season.

11.  I had the Browns-Bucs game on at the same time as the Broncos-Jaguars Sunday, and I found it interesting.  The Browns fans instantly love Peyton Hillis, which I told a lot of them would happen.  Peyton was Peyton on Sunday; he ran hard, and caught 4 passes, and looked like the best white halfback in the NFL since the 80s.  He also fumbled twice, and lost one.  To the Browns’ credit, they seem to realize that Hillis is no FB, and that he needs the ball to be an effective player.  I’m happy for him that he’s found a place to get a chance to do what he does.

12.  I’m putting the over/under on Seneca Wallace’s elevation to Browns starting QB at 5.5 games.  Jake Delhomme just continues to throws the ball to the other team too much.  Wallace is a better player, and would give the Browns a better chance to win.  In other QB news, nobody in the Browns organization seems to view Colt McCoy as a legitimate candidate to ever be a long-term NFL starter.  That shows that they’ve got a much better/more realistic personnel operation in place here.

13.  The Bucs, on the other hand, have their QB for years to come.  I put Josh Freeman right behind Matthew Stafford, even with Joe Flacco, and ahead of Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, and Chad Henne among 2008/2009 drafted QBs.  He’s big, smart, athletic, and poised, and he throws a very nice ball.  I like him better than Sam Bradford, too, but I didn’t want to include 2010 guys, with them having so little experience so far.

14.  Robert Ayers looked excellent on Sunday for the Broncos, in a variety of roles.  Never mind the tempered “he looked okay” praise from the Denver media, who don’t have any idea what they’re looking at.  Ayers consistently whipped Eben Britton in the pass-rush game, and got his first sack, and he also looked sure of himself reacting to the run, and playing man-to-man coverage.  If the Broncos had ever led, and/or the Jaguars ever had to throw the ball down the field, Ayers may have had a couple more sacks, the way he was playing.  I think he’s going to replace Elvis Dumervil’s production this season, and they’ll be a monster pair in 2011.  Ayers will ultimately be the better all-around player, though, because he offers more in the running game.  I believe that Mike Mayock had it exactly right when he predicted that Ayers would be the best defensive player in the 2009 Draft in 3 years.

15.  The Redskins sure looked like a Mike Shanahan team, in conservatively protecting a lead Sunday night.  The criticism of Shanahan’s decision to “take points off the board”  in the 3rd quarter is utterly asinine.  The only reason NOT to take a field goal off the board when a penalty gives you a first down is that you’re afraid of what some second-guessing ass-clown like John Czarnecki will say.  Shanahan is not afraid of that, and no coach should be.  Don’t let anybody tell you that the numbers are with keeping the FG, because they’re not.  If I have a 50% chance of scoring a TD, a 45% chance of kicking a later FG, and a 5% chance of scoring no points, (which is conservative), my expected outcome is 4.85 points, which is clearly superior to keeping 3 points.

16.  The Cowboys have been beaten up badly today, so I’m not going to pile on.  They didn’t look like a real contender Sunday night, but they still have a ton of talent.

17.  The Jets are really good on defense, but you can throw the ball downfield on them.  Antonio Cromartie is not a good CB, and people need to stop perpetuating the myth that he is.

18.  Speaking of the Jets, they have a big problem at Left Guard, because Matt Slauson has really been struggling, and Vladimir Ducasse has reportedly been even worse in practice.  I’m not one of these people who thinks Alan Faneca is good, or should have been kept.  I’ll leave that second-guessing nonsense to others.  I’ll just say that until either Slauson or Ducasse gets better, this is going to be a major problem.  Between that issue, and Mark Sanchez’s clear lack of readiness for prime time, let’s all stop loving on the Jets’ man-parts, mmmmkay?

19.  The Jets had no ability to exploit this, but the Ravens can definitely be had over the top.  I’d run a ton of 4-verticals at them, and bet that my QB can riddle them with downfield throws.  The Ravens might have the worst secondary in the NFL, outside of Detroit, if anybody can protect long enough to exploit it.  I think Cincinnati is going to start showing signs of it this week, and Denver and New England are going to exploit it badly in weeks 5 and 6.

20.  If I were a Chiefs fan (and thank goodness I’m not), I’d be really happy with what I saw of Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson on Monday Night.  Both of them looked much improved, which should come as no surprise.  Defensive linemen take time to learn how to play in the NFL.  Dorsey was outstanding, in particular.

21.  I said I’m happy I’m not a Chiefs fan, but they do get my respect.  They helped their team win a big opening game by getting extremely loud.  Great showing by the Arrowhead faithful.

22.  Has anybody noticed how bad that Chargers are in punt coverage?  This is a continuing problem for them, and it tends to refute the meme about them having great top-to-bottom roster talent.  I think they have great top-of-the-roster talent, and not much more than that.

It’s 1:21 AM, so I’m off the the rack.  I’ll try to get some more watching/writing done tomorrow or Wednesday.  Have a great Tuesday, friends!